AI will erase 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035 — and create 41 million new ones
A new McKinsey forecast says AI's job disruption nets out positive nationally, but millions of workers will need to retrain, relocate, or switch fields entirely to get there.
What happened: McKinsey Global Institute estimates AI and automation will cut demand for about 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035, while growth elsewhere creates roughly 41 million — a net gain. But in its base case, about 11 million workers (roughly 7% of the workforce) would need to leave their current occupation entirely, with a range of 6 to 16 million. Separately, hiring-platform data from TrueUp shows AI isn't shrinking tech jobs either: over 280,000 tech openings exist right now, up sharply this year, while layoffs have eased well below their 2023 peak, even as hiring shifts toward hardware, chips, and AI infrastructure.
Why it matters: McKinsey frames this as a mobility problem, not a scarcity one: the new jobs exist, but matching workers to them is hard, and the pain isn't evenly spread. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher earners to need a brand-new occupation. The jobs shrinking — office support, retail, transportation — generally pay less than the ones growing, like healthcare, construction, and management. About 770,000 people a year would need to switch fields entirely, 3.6 times the historical average.
How it works, plainly: Only about one in seven displaced workers has a direct path into a growing job needing little retraining at equal or better pay. Nearly half face an "unpaved" path, blocked by skill gaps or credential requirements — 85% of growing jobs demand some credential. Geography adds another hurdle: 76% of growing jobs can't be done remotely, tied to hospitals, construction sites, or data centers. In tech specifically, AI is reshuffling what companies hire for — pulling back in places, surging in hardware and robotics — rather than cutting headcount overall.
The rollout: Universities and cities are positioning for the shift: Citadel's Ken Griffin committed $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon, including $2 billion for a new Miami campus opening in 2028, and Vanderbilt is building a West Palm Beach graduate campus focused on AI and data science. Urbanist Richard Florida expects some displaced service workers to land in higher-paying "wellness" roles, and says employers are already screening less for raw intelligence and more for people who can build a business and work with others.