Bosses are bracing for AI layoffs while still struggling to hire and manage AI use
New surveys show executives expect AI-driven cuts within two years, even as hiring gets messier and most managers admit they can't yet lead AI-native workers.
What happened: Three new workplace surveys paint a messy picture. A Mercer poll of 12,000 people found over 99% of executives expect AI to cause at least some headcount cuts in the next two years, and 98% are planning org redesigns. Separately, Express Employment Professionals/Harris Poll data shows 44% of hiring managers can't fill open roles, the worst rate since 2023, with automation frustrating candidates and recruiters alike. And an Indeed/YouGov survey finds 45% of employers are actively hiring 'AI-native' staff, but only 45% of managers feel equipped to lead them, and just 13% feel strongly equipped.
Why it matters: These aren't separate trends, they're one story. Companies are moving fast to reorganize around AI at the leadership level, while the actual hiring pipeline and middle-management layer haven't caught up. That gap lands squarely on workers: job seekers face longer, more automated processes that feel impersonal, and employees hired into AI-heavy roles often report their managers can't fairly judge their work. Nearly half of managers already leading AI-native staff say those staff outskill them.
How it works, plainly: Employers are automating resume screening and interview steps to handle volume, but this is producing fewer hires, not better ones, timelines are stretching and interviews per candidate have dropped. On the management side, researchers say AI blends human and machine contribution so thoroughly that managers can no longer tell how much of a polished report reflects an employee's own skill, making promotion and performance calls harder. Manager training mostly gets added only after AI-native hiring begins, not before, so the skills gap persists.
The rollout: Not everyone reads this as doom: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has publicly argued fears of an 'AI job apocalypse' are overblown, and Harvard Business School research found generative AI is currently boosting demand for some 'augmentation-prone' roles, with cuts concentrated in finance and tech. Experts quoted in the Indeed survey say the fix isn't teaching managers to prompt better, it's redesigning workflows, evaluation methods, and how junior staff get real hands-on experience as AI use spreads.